Supply squeeze pushes Norway salmon price above NOK 80

According to industry statistics provider Akvafakta, the price rose by as much as NOK 7.39 / kg in week 6 and ended at NOK 80.05. This beats the previous best listing of NOK 79.16 / kg from week 19 in 2018.

The price is NOK 32.19 / kg higher than in the same week last year. This difference is the fifth largest in history and is itself a price that would have been considered good only 10 years ago.

The average spot price so far this year is NOK 71.97 / kg, compared to NOK 44.76 / kg last year at the same time.

Lower volume

Paul Aandahl, market analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council, told Fish Farming Expert’s Norwegian sister site, Kyst.no, that the historically high price has been driven by a lower volume, both from Norway and probably from several other large producer nations of Atlantic salmon.

This is backed up by figures from Kontali featured in salmon farmer Lerøy’s Q4 2021 report published today. Kontali anticipates a year-on-year fall in the supply of Norwegian salmon by 3% this month and 5% in March. 

In Scotland, year-on-year volume is expected to fall by 7% this month, 23% in March, 19% in April, 15% in May and 11% in June before surpassing last year’s monthly harvests in the second half of the year and peaking in December with a 46% bigger harvest than in the same month last year. 

Higher demand

“In addition, we see that demand is significantly higher than before the pandemic and of course also compared to February 2021,” he said.

Aandahl pointed out that demand began to rise in earnest in March last year when easing of Covid-19 restrictions began to have an effect on consumption.

“Increased consumption in restaurants is what is boosting demand now, at the same time as consumption in the home falls. Although consumption, measured in volume to home consumption, is falling in most markets, the volume is still significantly higher than before the pandemic,” he said.

Export fall

Norway exported 26,181 tonnes (round weight) of salmon in week 6, which is 7.5% less than the same week last year.

So far this year, Norway has exported 157,000 tonnes of salmon, 4.5% less than at the same time a year ago.