Analyst: Norway to harvest record 1.3m tonnes in 2019
Norway will harvest a record-high 1.3 million tonnes of head-on gutted (HOG) salmon this year, a market expert has predicted.
Kolbjørn Giskeødegård, an analyst for Nordea Markets, also told Fish Farming Expert’s Norwegian sister site, Kyst.no, that average prices for Norwegian salmon would be at least NOK 60 for the first quarter of this year.
“With the first half of the quarter gone, the average is around NOK 58. The salmon price at the beginning of March has now jumped over NOK 70, so 60 as an average is definitely both attainable and probably also a little conservative,” he added.
Asked how the average price compared to previous years, Giskeødegård said: “With the exception of 2017, the start of 2019 is the best ever, but at the same time there has never been more salmon sold in the first eight weeks.”
Record-breaking quantities
Giskeødgård said that seasonal volumes will be somewhat down next week.
“But if you look at the year as a whole, Norway will harvest record-breaking quantities of salmon and for the first time pass 1.3 million tonnes of HOG weight.”
Nordea’s scenario is that the salmon price will remain above NOK 60 on average for the rest of the year, but the analyst says there will probably be periods in the autumn where it will creep down towards the mid-50s, as has also been seen in recent years.
“We expect salmon prices above NOK 60 for 2019, 2020 and 2021,” he said.
Lower spot prices
The Oslo-listed fish farming companies have in the last few weeks presented their results for 2018, and Giskeødegård says that the companies have had lower spot prices in Q4 than expected, which significantly affected the price achieved for those with low contract share.
“The big picture shows that margins are highest in the north and lowest in the south, in line with what has been in recent years,” he added.
Scottish Sea Farms co-owner Lerøy Seafood Group had, among other things, weaker earnings than Nordea expected.
“The main reason for the deviation is weaker than expected margins, especially for Lerøy Sjøtroll, which delivered a margin of 50% below our expectation despite a favourable cost development,” Nordea concluded in its morning report.
