Atlantic salmon back on the path for growth

Global salmon production is expected to grow next year after two years of flat or declining output, according to results of Rabobank’s annual production survey conducted together with the Global Seafood Alliance (GSA).

Norway will lead with year-on-year growth of 3.7% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2023, culminating in estimated production of 1.58 million tonnes and 1.67 million tonnes for the next two years, respectively.

There remain uncertainties about the potential volume growth of the world’s second-largest salmon farming actor, Chile, over the next few years due to new legislation and biological issues.

Better equipped

“It is unlikely that production volumes will eclipse 2020 levels before 2025, as year-on-year growth is forecast at 2% in 2024, followed by a 1.8% decline in 2025,” wrote the report’s authors, RaboResearch seafood analyst Novel D Sharma and senior seafood analyst Gorjan Nikolik.

“Additionally, there are potential downside risks heading into 2024, as higher temperatures due to El Niño conditions may lead to higher incidences of algal blooms, causing an increase in mortalities. However, the industry is better equipped to deal with potential downsides now than it was during the last El Niño event.”

Their report includes a forecast from market research organisation Kontali that UK Atlantic salmon production, said to be “on the road to recovery”, will increase by 6% next year and a further 6% in 2025.

Production in Canada is expected fall by 8% this year then rise by 3% in 2024 and a further 9% in 2025. Kontali expects production in the Faroe Islands to fall by 1% this year, rise by 13% in 2024, and fall by 1% in 2025.

3 million tonnes

The biggest percentage increases are forecast in the “Others” grouping, which includes Australia, Ireland, the United States, and Iceland. Production in that grouping is forecast to rise by 15% next year and 14% in 2025.

World production of Atlantic salmon is expected to reach 3 million tonnes for the first time in 2024 and surpass that by 3.9% (117,000 tonnes) in 2025.

Production of large rainbow trout is stable in Chile and Norway, and growing strongly in the trout “Others” grouping, which includes Finland, China, Russia, Denmark, Sweden, France, Turkey, and others. Production in the Others grouping is forecast to be around 160,000 tonnes this year and increase by 4% in 2024 and 10% in 2025.

Coho salmon production is forecast to have risen sharply in Chile to upwards on 270,000 tonnes this year but is expected to fall by 20% next year.

Sea bass and sea bream are expected to have two strong years, led by Turkey’s expansion, and there will be recovery in the tilapia, pangasius, and shrimp sectors.

Market prices are the top concern of producers, followed by feed costs.