Kontali predicts 5% growth in salmon harvest volume this year

With fourth-quarter 2024 results now in, Atlantic salmon supply growth estimates for 2025 are all positive, but projections vary significantly, writes Kontali’s lead analyst for salmonids, Lars Daniel Garshol, in a weekly update.

Oslo-listed companies project volume growth of nearly 11% this year, while at the other end of the spectrum, industry commentators expect growth as low as 3%, or even 2.5%.

Norwegian analytical company Kontali forecasts about 5% growth in 2025, driven by higher biomass, strong production, and lower losses in the first quarter. 

The forecast is based on 3- to 5-year averaged productivity parameters, which serve as the reference point for the most likely scenario.

A history of over optimism

Company guidance suggests a growth potential exceeding 80,000 tonnes whole fish equivalent (WFE), or nearly 11% year-on-year, but industry projections have often been overly optimistic, writes Garshol. 

The gap between company guidance and actual harvests over the past decade underscores how extraordinary events and shifts in productivity have led to inflated forecasts. 

Historically, company guidance has factored in expected biological improvements - such as reduced losses, increased weights, and improved yields - more optimistically than final outcomes.

While this aligns with production trends in recent years, Kontali believes it underestimates the current fundamentals and outlook. 

These estimates also overlook several recent developments that should help optimise production.

Fewer losses, better growth

Fundamentally, optimising idle capacity in 2025 will depend on reducing losses and improving growth performance in the first half of the year. 

Maximising biomass utilisation from September to November will be key, alongside fewer sea lice treatments and lost feeding days. Increased turnover and shorter production time at sea will drive efficiency, while new cage technology - such as closed and shielded systems - will play a crucial role in unlocking growth.

As ever, biosecurity is key to unlocking growth in the salmon sector, reducing losses and improving turnover and utilisation. 

A better generation

Despite 70 million more fish being stocked in the sea (in Norway) since 2019, Maximum Allowable Biomass (MAB) capacity has grown just 1%, leaving untapped potential. 

With strong growth expected in the 2024 generation, MAB utilisation could see major gains in late 2025 and into 2026. 

Furthermore, Norway’s 2023 generation had the weakest smolt yield in over 20 years, nearly 10% below the 10-year average. 

As such, a conservative recovery in smolt yield is expected, but regulatory limits will cap weight gains in the second half of the year.