US seafood tariffs 'will shift market dynamics globally'

United States import tariffs on seafood exports from Canada, Mexico, and China – and potentially the European Union - may offer short-term gain for salmon exports from Norway and Chile but are bad news in the long run, a seafood market analyst has warned.

A 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican seafood is due to be imposed tomorrow, although it has been reported that US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick says the situation is “fluid” and that President Donald Trump may change the tariff level. A 25% tariff on some imports from the EU is expected imminently.

“These measures will disrupt trade flows, impact pricing, and shift market dynamics globally,” said Philip Scrase, chief analytics officer at Kontali in a weekly market note.

“Higher tariffs will lead to rising US salmon prices, particularly for products that lack easy substitutes.

“Canada and the EU’s loss is a gain for Chile and Norway. But even as Norway and Chile step in to supply the US, higher tariffs will drive up consumer prices -potentially by up to 10% - while reshaping global trade flows.

“In the event of broad tariffs, US demand will reduce, and supply will be redirected to Europe and Asia, increasing competition and pressuring producer prices in those markets. 

“The global price impact depends on the scope of the tariffs - restrictions on a single country have limited effects, while broader tariffs on European imports could significantly alter market balance.

“The long-term response will likely include producers seeking new markets and potential investment in domestic production in the US, though such changes take time. 

“Meanwhile, higher seafood prices may drive some US consumers toward alternative proteins and downtrading within the seafood category.

“For now, the industry faces a period of adjustment, with market impacts depending on how trade policies evolve in the coming months.”